828 
ACUS1 KMKC 021807
SWODY1
MKC AC 021807

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 021900Z - 031200Z

REF WW NUMBER 85...VALID TIL 2200Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT ACRS A
LARGE PART OF LA...MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN MS...AND MUCH OF WRN AND
CNTRL AL...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSY LFT 20 S POE 45 NNW POE
MLU GWO 35 E TUP GAD ANB MGM MOB MSY.

SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS
TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW BPT LFK GGG ELD 25 N GLH 40 NNW
TUP CSV HSS GSO 35 NW RWI 20 E ECG ...CONT... 25 E SAV MGR PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE GLS 15 W LFK
35 SSW TYR FTW ADM FSM BWG HTS SHD 20 E SBY ...CONT... MLB SRQ.

POTENT...AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER EVENT STILL
EVOLVING OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MS VLY AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES.

VERY MOIST AMS WITH SFC DWPNTS ARND 70F CONT TO ADVECT OFF THE
GLFMEX...AHEAD OF DEEPENING SFC LOW CURRENTLY /18Z/ LOCATED OVER SE
TX.  MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH VIGOROUS UPR LOW/TROF OVER
CNTRL TX ACLTG ENEWD LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...REACHING MIDDLE
TN/AL BY 03/12Z.  PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL COOLING/DRYING ASSOCD WITH
THIS SYS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STG CNVTV INSTBY LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE
ACRS PORTIONS OF LA/MS/AL...WHERE LTST SFC DATA SUG CAPE ALREADY AS
HIGH AS 2000 J/KG.

GIVEN INSTBY...STG DYNAMIC FORCING EXPCD TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
NMRS STG/SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...ESPY INVOF QSTNRY
BDRY EXTENDING EWD FM LOW ACRS CNTRL GULF COAST STATES INTO THE
CAROLINAS.  BACKED SFC FLOW INVOF LOW/FRONT...AND 30 TO 50 KT SSWLY
LLJ...WILL RESULT IN MDTLY STG AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES
BENEATH STG CYC MID/UPR LEVEL JET PROPAGATING ACRS HIGH RISK AREA. 
THUS...HODOGRAPHS EXPCD TO BE QUITE FVRBL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS.

ACTIVITY EXPCD TO INCREASE SGFNTLY ACRS LA/MS THIS AFTN...SPREADING
INTO PORTIONS OF AL/GA DURING THE EVE HOURS...AND PSBLY AS FAR EAST
AS CAROLINAS BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.
 
..KERR.. 03/02/97